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Final sample question

Please finish those all questions on this PDF, including short answer. This practice exam has 33 total questions. If they appeared on the real final exam, they would be worth 1 point each. For this “Writing 3” Practice Final Exam, you will get credit for answering all of the questions.

PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 1 of 8
This practice exam has 33 total questions. If they appeared on the real final exam, they would
be worth 1 point each. For this “Writing 3” Practice Final Exam, you will get credit for answering
all of the questions, whether correctly or not and submitting to Canvas by the deadline:
Saturday, December 7 at 11:59 pm. You should check your answers against the answer key
(posted Sunday morning, December 8) to help you prepare for the final exam on Monday,
December 9, 8-10 am. Don’t forget to bring a Scantron 2000 form to the Final Exam on
Monday.
Some questions on this practice final ask you to calculate and write answers. The actual final
exam will be all multiple choice questions that you answer on your Scantron form.
There are no diagrams of causal studies on this practice final, but the actual final exam may
ask you to consider various diagrams that represent study designs or statistical data, so please
review the study and data diagrams for causal studies.
This practice final also is longer than the actual final exam.
Complete this practice exam and submit as a PDF via Canvas by Saturday, December 7, 11:59
pm. The easy way to do this is to print a copy, write your answers, and upload a scan or photo
(as a single PDF file).
Margin of Error Table, in case you need it.
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 2 of 8
Problem I. (5 points) General Questions
Choose the letter from the list of answers below to identify the grade of knowledge about states of the
world that each decision strategy in questions 1-3 below is designed to evaluate.
a. Certainty
b. Known Risk
c. Complete Uncertainty
Question 1. Satisfactory-Option Strategy grade of knowledge: ___
Question 2. Expected-Value Strategy grade of knowledge: ___
Question 3. Play-It-Safe Strategy grade of knowledge: ___
Question 4. Choose the response that best answers the question: Random assignment is a feature of
which kind of experimental design for evaluating causal hypotheses?
a. Retrospective
b. Prospective
c. Controlled Experiment
d. Randomized Experiment
e. Double-Blind Experiment
f. Griesemer Homework Design
Question 5. True or False? A prospective design measures the frequency of the cause, not the effect.
a. True, b. False
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 3 of 8
Problem II. (6 points) Pascal’s Wager. In his Pensées sur la religion et sur quelques autres sujets, the
philosopher, physicist, inventor, mathematician, and theologian Blaise Pascal (1623-1662), formulated
one of the most famous decision problems of all time. Pascal tried to show in a famous wager argument
that it is not unreasonable to believe in God. Read the following statement of his problem carefully,
and then answer the questions that follow.
“If there is a God, he is infinitely incomprehensible to us. But either God exists or he does not exist, and
we are unable to tell which alternative is true. However, both our present lives and our possible future
lives may well be greatly affected by the alternative we choose to accept. Since eternal life and
happiness is a possible result of one choice and since nothing is lost if we are wrong about the other
choice, then the reasonable choice, given what may be at stake, is to choose the theistic alternative. He
who remains an unbeliever is taking an infinitely unreasonable risk just because he does not know
which alternative is true.” (A word of explanation: in Christian theology, if you don’t believe, you don’t go
to heaven.) (adapted from The Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
Question 6. What grade of knowledge do you have in this decision problem?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Complete Certainty
Known Risk
Complete Uncertainty
a priori
a posteriori
Question 7-10. In the decision matrix below, choose letters from the list of answers to complete
Pascal’s decision matrix.
Question 9. ______
a.
b.
c.
d.
God exists
God does not exist
Believe
Don’t Believe
Question 10. ______
Question 7. ______
“Eternal life and
happiness”
“nothing is lost”
Question 8. ______
[Pascal didn’t articulate
this outcome, but you
can imagine it.]
“nothing is lost”
Question 11. What strategy did Pascal use to justify recommending the “theistic alternative” (Believe in
God)?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Highest Value Strategy
Known Risk Strategy
Best Option Strategy
Satisfactory Option Strategy
Gamble: either Play-It-Safe or High-Gains
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 4 of 8
Problem III (7 points). Prisoner’s Dilemma (Questions 12-18). Answer the questions below related
to this tragic decision problem on your Scantron with answers corresponding to possible value
assignments listed below.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma. Suppose that you and a friend are engaged in some illegal activity and are
arrested. The district attorney (DA) puts you in different cells and then comes to you with the following
“bargain.” The evidence against you both is quite good, but the case would be stronger, he says, If one
of you would provide more information. So the DA promises that if you talk, you will get off with at most
one year in the state prison—provided your partner does not also talk. However, if you do not talk and
your partner does, you are likely to get four years. Knowing a bit about decision theory, you realize that
there are two other outcomes to consider. So you ask the DA what happens if neither of you talks or if
both of you do. The DA admits that, without some additional evidence, you will both get off with at most
two years. If you both talk, however, you will both get three years. Suddenly, you realize that you do not
know what your partner might do in this situation. You do not even know what you will do. So you ask
the DA for a half-hour to think about your decision. Having carefully analyzed the problem, you refl ect
on the fact that your partner is in exactly the same situation as you are. If he analyzes the problem as
you have, the end result for both of you is predictable. What is that result?
Questions 12-15. Values. Choose the letters on the list of possible answers below (corresponding to
possible values assignments) to assign the most appropriate values in the decision matrix below for the
Preventative Attack story. (Higher numbers mean higher values in a value ranking.)
Possible Answers:
a.
b.
c.
d.
Your partner
talks
value = 1 year in prison
value = 2 years in prison
value = 3 years in prison
value = 4 years in prison
You talk
You do not
talk
Your partner
does not talk
Question 12. ____ Question 13. ____
Question 14. ____ Question 15. ____
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 5 of 8
Question 16. Grade of Knowledge. What grade of knowledge does the Prisoners’ Dilemma story give
you about the decision problem above?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Complete Certainty
Known Risk
Complete Uncertainty
Doubt
Confidence
Question 17. Decision Strategy. Given the grade of knowledge and the Prisoners’ Dilemma story, what
decision strategy should you use to evaluate this decision problem?
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Highest-Value Strategy
Known Risk Strategy
Best Option Strategy
Satisfactory Option Strategy
Gamble
Question 18. Recommendation. Given the most appropriate strategy for the Prisoners’ Dilemma story
according to our decision theory, what option should you choose?
a.
b.
c.
d.
Talk
Do Not Talk
Send a secret message to your partner not to talk
Break out of prison
Problem IV. (15 points). “A species of spider that suckles its young: They are looked after so well that
they do not want to leave home.” December 1, 2018, The Economist (edited)
SUPERFICIALLY, INDIVIDUALS of a species of jumping spider called Toxeus magnus look like ants.
This protects them from the attentions of spider wasps —a group of insects that catch and paralyze
spiders in order to lay their eggs on the arachnids’ bodies, which thus act as a living food supply for
the wasps’ larvae. Ants are not, however, the only group of unrelated animals that T. magnus
resembles. They are also quite like mammals. That, at least, is the conclusion of a study just published
in Science by Quan Rui-chang and colleagues of the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, in
Yunnan, China.
Female mammals produce milk to suckle their young. Indeed, that was the traditional definition of a
mammal. However, a few other types of animal do something similar. Pigeons, for example, generate a
milk like secretion in their throats, which they feed to their squabs. But until now, only in mammals (or
some of them, anyway) was lactation thought to be the basis of an extended relationship between
parent and offspring. Dr Quan and his colleagues have changed that thinking.
Their study was stimulated by the observation that wild T. magnus seem to remain in the maternal nest
far longer than most other spider species. They wondered why. They therefore brought some
specimens into their laboratory for a closer look. This showed that the mother of a brood exudes fluid
from her epigastric furrow, the canal through which she lays her eggs. For the first week of her
hatchlings’ lives, she deposits this fluid in drops around the nest, from which the young spiders drink.
After that, until they are about 40 days old, she suckles the spiderlings directly. Spiderlings reach full
adulthood at around 52 days old.
Experiments that measured the growth and survival of young spiders, some of which involved sealing
the mother’s epigastric furrow using typewriter-correction fluid (which doesn’t hurt the spiders),
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 6 of 8
showed that the spiderlings did, indeed, depend on the secretion for nutrition. They relied on it
completely until they were 20 days old, at which point they started leaving the nest to hunt on their
own account. Even after this, though, the fluid formed an important dietary supplement until they were
about 40 days old. And chemical analysis showed that it is a rich source of nutrients. It contains four
times as much protein as cow’s milk does.
Even when weaned, young spiders, like many young mammals, returned home regularly after they had
been out searching for food of their own—and experiments that removed the mother showed she was
in some way contributing to their health and survival even then. Young spiders continued to return until
they were 60 days old, and thus sexually mature. At that point, the mother started attacking returning
sons, thus driving them away— presumably to avoid the risk of them mating with their sisters and
producing inbred offspring. Daughters, though, she continued to tolerate. At what point those
daughters, too, left to set up shop by themselves the study did not investigate.
Consider the details below of the experiments performed by Dr. Quan and colleagues and answer the
questions. Round sample sizes to the nearest row in the Margins of Error Table provided at the
beginning of this exam and don’t worry if frequencies are near 0% or 100% — Just use the Table
anyway.
Experiment 1. To see if mother spiders’ “milk” actually provided nutrition to the young spiderlings, Dr.
Quan’s team blocked the mothers’ epigastric furrows with typewriter-correction fluid the day eggs
hatched in the nest. They found that slightly less than 2% of 62 spiderlings survived past day 10 of
development and all died by day 11. Of 145 other spiderlings whose mothers’ epigastric furrows were
not blocked at day 1, 90% survived past day 10 and many of those survived to adulthood.
Question 19. What kind of study is this? (Circle the best answer)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Statistical
Causal: Randomized Experiment
Causal: Prospective
Causal: Retrospective
Decision
Question 20. State the hypothesis of Experiment 1, given the kind of study it is.
Question 21. Calculate the appropriate interval estimates of the frequencies of the two groups of
spiderlings. Show your work.
Question 22. If the study is causal, calculate the minimum effectiveness, or if statistical, the minimum
estimated difference in proportions. Show your work.
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 7 of 8
Question 23. State the appropriate summary conclusion, assuming assumptions of random sampling
were well met.
Experiment 2. To see if spider mothers’ “milk” rather than other maternal care (cleaning and repairing
the nest, defending the nest against parasites) was responsible for spiderlings’ survival after the
spiderlings could forage on their own (at Day 20 of their development), Dr. Quan’s team blocked the
epigastric furrows of some spider mothers at Day 20 and left some other spider mothers unblocked
and able to feed their offspring “milk.” They found that 74% of 91 spiderlings survived to adulthood
even if their mothers’ were blocked from feeding them “milk” while 76% of 145 spiderlings survived
when their mothers were able to feed them.
Question 24. What kind of study is this? (Circle the best answer)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Statistical
Causal: Randomized Experiment
Causal: Prospective
Causal: Retrospective
Decision
Question 25. State the hypothesis of Experiment 2, given the kind of study it is.
Question 26. Calculate the appropriate interval estimates of the frequencies of the two groups of
spiderlings. Show your work.
Question 27. If the study is causal, calculate the minimum effectiveness, or if statistical, the minimum
estimated difference in proportions. Show your work.
Question 28. State the appropriate summary conclusion, assuming assumptions of random sampling
were well met.
PHI 031 Fall 2019
Writing 3 = Final Exam Practice
p. 8 of 8
Experiment 3. To further test whether maternal care is responsible for spiderling survival past Day 20,
Dr. Quan’s team removed mothers from their nests at Day 20. This meant that not only would
spiderlings not receive mothers’ “milk” after Day 20, they would not receive maternal care in the nest
either. The researchers found that 76% of 145 spiderlings with normal care and feeding survived to
adulthood while, of 121 spiderlings whose mothers had been removed at Day 20, only 50% survived.
Question 29. What kind of study is this? (Circle the best answer)
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Statistical
Causal: Randomized Experiment
Causal: Prospective
Causal: Retrospective
Decision
Question 30. State the hypothesis of Experiment 3, given the kind of study it is.
Question 31. Calculate the appropriate interval estimates of the frequencies of the two groups of
spiderlings. Show your work.
Question 32. If the study is causal, calculate the minimum effectiveness, or if statistical, the minimum
estimated difference in proportions. Show your work.
Question 33. State the appropriate summary conclusion, assuming assumptions of random sampling
were well met.

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